Fecha actual Mié May 23, 2018 3:57 pm

Todos los horarios son UTC - 3 horas




Nuevo tema Responder al tema  [ 1 mensaje ] 
Autor Mensaje
NotaPublicado: Sab Abr 05, 2014 2:39 pm 
Desconectado
Avatar de Usuario

Registrado: Jue Mar 31, 2011 6:00 pm
Mensajes: 150
Nacionalidad: Argentina
Provincia: Córdoba
There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are unsustainable, but possibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. Collapses have occurred frequently in history, often followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a general explanation remains elusive.
In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding accumulated wealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans and nature. The model structure, and simulated scenarios that offer significant implications, are explained. Four equations describe the evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The model shows Economic Stratification or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, in
agreement with the historical record.
The measure “Carrying Capacity” is developed and its estimation is shown to be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to two types of collapses are discussed. The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses found in history. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if
resources are distributed equitably.

Keywords: Human-Nature Dynamics; Societal Collapse; Carrying Capacity; Overshoot vs Sustainability; Economic Inequality; Ecological Strain.

http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/fil ... kalnay.pdf


Share on Facebook
Arriba
 Perfil  
 
Mostrar mensajes previos:  Ordenar por  
Nuevo tema Responder al tema  [ 1 mensaje ] 

Todos los horarios son UTC - 3 horas


¿Quién está conectado?

Usuarios navegando por este Foro: No hay usuarios registrados visitando el Foro y 1 invitado


No podes abrir nuevos temas en este Foro
No podes responder a temas en este Foro
No podes editar tus mensajes en este Foro
No podes borrar tus mensajes en este Foro
No podes enviar adjuntos en este Foro

Buscar:
Saltar a:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Traducción al Español Argentino por phpBB Argentina con la colaboración de phpbb-es.com